Likelihood of Simulated Events
Warm-up
If I flip this coin 10 times, how many times do you predict heads? (5.) Let us test. Flip 10 times, record. Class results: did everyone get exactly 5? (Likely not.) Why not? (Randomness.) If we all combined our results (30 students x 10 flips = 300 flips), would we be closer to 50%? (Yes.) Why?
Explore
Probability experiments stations: (1) Coin: predict 10 flips, record actual, calculate total heads out of 30 flips across the group. (2) Die: roll 12 times, which face appeared most? (3) Spinner: spin 20 times, compare to predicted. Pool class results at each station: do larger samples give better predictions?
Consolidate
Practice
Students conduct a 20-flip coin experiment, record results, compare to prediction, and pool results with the class. Write 2 sentences about the difference between theoretical and experimental probability. Exit ticket: in a bag with 2 red and 8 blue marbles, which colour are you more likely to draw?
Exit ticket
Students conduct a 20-flip coin experiment, record results, compare to prediction, and pool results with the class. Write 2 sentences about the difference between theoretical and experimental probability. Exit ticket: in a bag with 2 red and 8 blue marbles, which colour are you more likely to draw?
3/4 of 20 = 15 green spins predicted. Actual results will vary: maybe 13, maybe 17. Over 200 spins: much closer to 150.
Not necessarily: 12 rolls is too few to judge fairness. The expected number of sixes in 12 rolls is 2, but 0 is possible by chance. Roll it 120 times: the number of sixes should be closer to 20.