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LESSON PLAN

Probability Experiments — Single Events

A
Apothem Team
Grade 5 · Data & Probability
LESSON AT A GLANCE
Warm-up
5 min
Explore
15 min
Consolidate
10 min
Practice
12 min
Exit ticket
3 min

Warm-up

Roll a die: P(even) = 3/6 = 1/2. P(greater than 4) = 2/6 = 1/3. P(7) = 0/6 = 0. P(1-6) = 6/6 = 1. Probabilities range from 0 (impossible) to 1 (certain). As a percent: 50%, 33.3%, 0%, 100%. Connect fraction to decimal to percent for each.

Explore

Probability experiment with fractions: spinner with 5 equal sections (2 red, 2 blue, 1 green). Theoretical: P(red)=2/5=0.4=40%, P(blue)=2/5=40%, P(green)=1/5=0.2=20%. Run 30 spins. Calculate experimental probabilities as fractions. Compare to theoretical. Pool class results: 30x number of groups = much larger sample.

Consolidate

Practice

Students calculate theoretical probabilities for 6 different experiments (as fractions, decimals, and percents), run one experiment with 30 trials, and compare to theoretical. Exit ticket: P(rolling an even number) as a fraction, decimal, and percent.

Exit ticket

Students calculate theoretical probabilities for 6 different experiments (as fractions, decimals, and percents), run one experiment with 30 trials, and compare to theoretical. Exit ticket: P(rolling an even number) as a fraction, decimal, and percent.

TIP  Before any experiment, calculate the theoretical probability and express it as a fraction, decimal, and percent. This gives students a target and forces the three-representation connection.
WORKED EXAMPLES
A bag has 4 red, 3 blue, and 5 green marbles. What is P(blue)?

P(blue) = 3/(4+3+5) = 3/12 = 1/4 = 0.25 = 25%.

You roll a die 3 times and get 6, 6, 6. What is the probability of 6 on the 4th roll?

1/6. The previous rolls do not affect future rolls. Each roll is independent. P(6) is always 1/6 on a fair die.

MATERIALS
•Fair coins, standard dice, spinners
•Coloured marble bags
•Tally and probability recording sheets
•Probability fraction-decimal-percent conversion chart
WATCH FOR
!The gambler's fallacy (tails is due after many heads) is intuitive but wrong. Address it directly and repeatedly with data.
!Students may express probabilities as ratios (3:12) rather than fractions (3/12). Both are valid, but the fraction form connects to the 0-to-1 probability scale.