Likelihood of Familiar Events
Warm-up
I am going to say two events. Tell me which is more likely. Sunny vs. cloudy in January. Getting older vs. getting younger. Eating lunch tomorrow vs. flying to the moon for lunch. Start easy to build the language, then move to genuinely uncertain comparisons.
Explore
Comparative sorting: pairs receive 8 event cards and sort them into pairs, then for each pair determine which is more likely and justify. Is it more likely to rain on a cloudy day or a sunny day? How do you know? Groups share reasoning.
Consolidate
Practice
Students draw 3 pairs of events, record which is more likely for each pair, and write one sentence explaining their reasoning. Exit ticket: teacher names two weather events and students hold up hands for more likely on one side for A, other side for B.
Exit ticket
Students draw 3 pairs of events, record which is more likely for each pair, and write one sentence explaining their reasoning. Exit ticket: teacher names two weather events and students hold up hands for more likely on one side for A, other side for B.
Almost: rainbows require sunlight or bright moonlight plus rain simultaneously. A moonbow is possible but very rare. This is a good opportunity: You are right that it is very unlikely. But is it truly impossible? What would need to be true for it to happen? This models precise probabilistic thinking.
Never means it cannot happen under any circumstances. Unlikely means it might happen but does not often. Ask: Is there any way this could happen, even under unusual circumstances? If yes, it is unlikely rather than never.