Probability: Theoretical and Experimental

Warm-up

Quick discussion: List all possible outcomes of rolling a die. How many are there?

Explore

Students predict the theoretical probability of an event (e.g., rolling a 2 on a die). Then, they conduct an experiment: each student rolls 20 times, tallies the results, and records experimental probability. Combine class data for more trials.

Formalize

Write the formulas side by side:

Theoretical: P(event) = favorable outcomes ÷ total outcomes. Experimental: P(event) = times event happened ÷ total trials.

Explain: With few trials, experimental differs from theoretical. With many trials, they converge (Law of Large Numbers).

Practice

Students conduct small probability experiments and compare theoretical to experimental results. Exit ticket: one calculation and one interpretation.

Exit ticket

Students conduct small probability experiments and compare theoretical to experimental results. Exit ticket: one calculation and one interpretation.