Likelihood of Familiar Events
Warm-up
'I'm going to tell you something. Tell me: could this happen? Likely? Unlikely? Impossible? Certain?' Read scenarios: 'It will be dark tonight.' 'A dinosaur will walk into our classroom.' 'You will eat lunch today.' 'It might snow in summer.' Short discussion after each.
Explore
Pairs sort event picture cards onto a likelihood line (floor strip from Impossible to Certain). Encourage disagreement: 'I think this is unlikely, but my partner thinks it's impossible. We need to talk about it.' Productive disagreement is mathematical discussion.
Consolidate
Practice
Students each draw an event that is 'likely today' and one that is 'unlikely today.' They share with a partner and explain their reasoning. Exit: teacher names an event — students show a thumbs up (likely), thumbs down (unlikely), or flat hand (impossible).
Exit reflection
Probably not in most of BC — it does snow in April in many places. Use this to discuss context: 'It depends on where you live and what the weather is like. In our city, is it impossible or just unlikely?' This is genuinely good probabilistic reasoning.
Choose a clearly impossible event: 'Is it likely that you'll turn into a dragon at recess?' The absurdity provokes the distinction. Then work back toward genuinely uncertain cases.